Dynamics of Ethio-Somalian Relations Post 2018: Key Influencing Factors

Abstract

This article examines the post-2018 Ethio-Somalian relationships and major factors behind its dynamics. Despite Ethiopia's adoption of an’ open door and optimistic’ foreign policy towards its neighbours in 2018, its relations with Somalia continued to swing between cordial friendship and hostile confrontation due to a number of circumstances. The study is guided by neo-classical realism, which blends systemic and domestic factors. The study used qualitative approach in conjunction with descriptive and analytical research designs. Data were gathered through key informant interviews with seven ambassadors, diplomats, researchers, and academicians; Ministry of Foreign Affairs archives; and an in-depth investigation of published documents and sources. The data gathered from both primary and secondary sources was analyzed by a general inductive approach data analysis. According to the findings, the post-2018 Ethiopian government's policy of non-intervention, regional integration, as well as the bromance between the two leaders and strengthened socio-economic links infused new positive energy into friendly Ethio-Somalian ties. However, the growing bilateral ties were cut short by the change of government in Somalia and the ensuing actions taken by the new president. The relationships deteriorated further as Ethiopia, which had made access to the sea a top priority, began to take concrete measures to realize it, and signed a MoU with Somaliland. The MoU-related tensions between Ethiopia and Somalia exacerbated regional instability, as Somalia formed a military alliance with Egypt and Ethiopia expanded its security relationship with Somaliland. Additionally, it forced Ethiopia to reevaluate its policy of non-intervention in Somali domestic matters. This signifies that Ethiopian foreign policy towards the region and Somalia, the political transition in Somalia, Ethiopia's geographical vulnerability, the activities and policies of neighbouring countries towards Ethiopia, and the interest and influence of regional and global powers have all shaped the post-2018 Ethio-Somalian relationship dynamics. The study recommends that bilateral antagonism and looming cloud of conflict in the region should be resolved via bilateral negotiation in a way that protects Ethiopia's access to the sea and Somali territorial integrity.